By Amanda Leon, founder of OilMoney.io. Houston-raised, came up in the Houston marketing team of Vallourec, and has run Unrth, a brand and growth studio for oil and gas and industrial companies, since 2017, with her boots on client locations in Midland and Odessa. Last reviewed October 29, 2026.
We read every comment oil and gas executives left in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey from the first quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026: seven reports and 207 comments, 147 from exploration and production companies and 60 from oilfield service firms. Then we counted what they talk about. The operators you sell to talk about uncertainty more than anything else: 52% of their comments. The service companies talk about it too (42%), but they also talk about rising costs (28%) and customers cutting or delaying work (27%). Here is what that means for the people who sell into the patch.
What the Dallas Fed Survey Is
Every quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas surveys oil and gas firms located or headquartered in its district: Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico. The third-quarter 2026 report drew 125 responding firms, 83 of them exploration and production companies and 42 oilfield service firms. Respondents can leave written comments, and the Dallas Fed publishes a selection, edited for grammar and clarity. Those comments are as close as the public gets to hearing what operators and service owners say when nobody is selling to them.
How We Read It
Seven reports, released March 26, 2025 through September 30, 2026. We used the general comments section of each, and left out the special-question comments and the survey's contact lines.
Each comment was read by a person and tagged with every theme it raises, so one comment can count in more than one theme. Percentages are shares of comments, rounded.
A theme counts only when the comment says it plainly. A comment that only gives a price forecast doesn't count as uncertainty.
Limits: the Dallas Fed chooses which comments to publish and edits them, respondents choose whether to comment, and a share of comments is not a share of companies. Read these as what is on executives' minds, not a poll.
What the Operators Said
Across 147 comments from exploration and production executives:
52% raised uncertainty about oil prices, war, or policy (76 comments).
15% raised rising costs: steel, services, fuel, power, saltwater disposal, or permits (22).
12% named tariffs, steel, or tubular goods (17).
10% described cutting, pausing, or holding back drilling and spending (14), against 7% who said they were spending more or seeing more activity (10).
9% raised regulation, permits, or politics apart from price (13), and 7% raised natural gas prices or pipeline takeaway (10).
The uncertainty moved with the news. In the fourth-quarter 2025 report, 1 of 18 operator comments raised it. In the first-quarter 2026 report, after the conflict with Iran and the trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, 20 of 28 did.
What Operators Said About Their Vendors
Only 8 operator comments (5%) talk about service companies and suppliers directly, and they are worth reading closely if you sell to them:
In mid-2025, one operator said it had cut its rig count in half and worried that some of its vendors were being squeezed hard enough not to survive.
Another, in the same report, said service costs were low and wells were very economic, and that its problem was a lack of drilling inventory.
By early 2026, operators were reporting higher costs for cementing, logging, and perforating on similar work, and suppliers trying to raise prices.
In the second-quarter 2026 report, one operator wrote that a pressure pumping company asked how much over the proposed rate it would pay to lock in a frac date. The operator went with a different vendor.
That last one is the whole sales lesson in one comment. Price matters, but how a vendor handles a tight market is what the operator remembers, and he tells the survey about it.
What the Service Companies Said
Across 60 comments from oilfield service executives:
42% raised oil price or world-event uncertainty (25 comments).
28% raised rising costs, tariffs, fuel, or supply delays (17).
27% described customers cutting, delaying, or holding back work (16).
17% saw signs of more work or better rates (10).
13% raised pricing pressure from customers or cut-price competitors (8).
12% raised customer consolidation and mergers (7), and 5% raised finding and keeping crews (3).
The pricing comments read like one long argument. In 2025, service firms wrote that operators would not help absorb steel tariffs and were pushing margins to unsustainable levels. In 2026, one wrote that consolidation among the majors had made pricing far more competitive, with smaller providers cutting prices to win work until service problems show up. Another reported diesel up about 65% since January, eating into otherwise strong revenue growth.
Two Sides of the Same Table
Put the two groups side by side and the gap is plain. Operators write mostly about things nobody controls: prices, wars, and Washington. Service firms write about the squeeze those things create on their own margins. The 8 operator comments about vendors and the 8 service comments about pricing pressure describe the same fight from opposite chairs.
Something I learned running marketing at Wetzel's Pretzels: when I watched at least $150,000 go out the door to outside agencies, I asked, "Great. So where are our metrics? What are we really getting from this?" This report is that question turned on the oil patch. Not what one loud voice says, but what the whole record says, counted.
What It Means for Your Week
When uncertainty spikes, budgets freeze. Plans go on hold when prices swing, so time your asks around the budget calendar in when operators set next year's budgets, and keep your pipeline alive with what to do when oil drops.
Price is a lever, not the whole deal. The frac-date comment shows how fast a pricing ask can cost a customer. How to win an RFP without being the cheapest bid covers the rest.
Consolidation changes who signs. When the customer gets bought, start with what happens to a house account.
Be the name they know when it turns. Several service firms saw more work and better rates in 2026. The rep the engineer already knows gets the first call when activity comes back, which is what The Warm Walk-In™ is built for.
We Update This Every Quarter
The Dallas Fed publishes a new report each quarter, and we add its comments here when it does. The next one is due December 16, 2026. Want the short version in your inbox? The Tailgate is one letter a month from the patch, and it carries the numbers from each update. Sign up at the bottom of any page. If you'd rather see what a buyer sees when he looks you up, get your Bison Walk-Around.
Sources and As-Of Dates
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, first quarter 2025, released March 26, 2025: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, second quarter 2025, released July 2, 2025: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, third quarter 2025, released September 24, 2025: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, fourth quarter 2025, released December 17, 2025: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, first quarter 2026, released March 25, 2026: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, second quarter 2026, released June 24, 2026: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey, third quarter 2026, released Sept. 30, 2026: the published respondent comments.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey home page, checked October 29, 2026: the release schedule, including December 16, 2026.
Our coding sheet, with every comment's themes, is available on request.
The Warm Walk-In™ is an original method created by Amanda Leon and owned by The Valours Creative Innovation LLC.
